Top_Dual adjusts equity exposure based on how stressed or calm markets are, increasing risk in stable environments and reducing it when uncertainty rises. The focus is not on forecasting markets, but on managing risk systematically.
- Risk exposure increases when market conditions are stable
- Risk is gradually reduced as market stress rises
- Adjustments are continuous and rule-based, not binary
Top_Research represents the complete universe of rule-based trading strategies, which are systematically implemented within the GR_Strategies portfolios in both USD and EUR.
| Date | Top_Dual | DAX | SP500 |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.02 % | -0.43 % | ||
| 3.04 % | -0.87 % | ||
| 3.24 % | 0.49 % | ||
| 81.59 % | 79.16 % | ||
| 20.23 % | 19.73 % | ||
| 1.43 | 1.34 |
How the strategy works
Top_Dual continuously
compares the current level of market risk with its own historical
behavior. This creates a natural reference range that shows whether
market conditions are relatively calm or unusually stressed.
Adjusting exposure
When market risk is low compared
to the past, the strategy allows for higher equity exposure. As risk
increases and moves toward the upper end of its historical range, equity
exposure is gradually reduced. In highly stressed environments, risk
exposure can be reduced significantly.
Gradual, not binary
The allocation does not switch
abruptly between “in” and “out”. Instead, exposure is adjusted step by
step, which helps avoid sudden shifts and supports a smoother investment
experience.
Objective
Top_Dual aims to participate in market
upside during stable periods while systematically protecting capital
during phases of elevated uncertainty. The goal is a more balanced and
resilient return profile across different market conditions.
Performance table since start 2023 (USD):
| Top_Dual: 47.28 % |
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | |||||||||||||
| 2024 | |||||||||||||
| 2025 | |||||||||||||
| 2026 |
Performance and Risk Metrics for Top_Dual
Performance Metrics
| Top_Dual | |
|---|---|
| Cumulative Return (%) | 47.28 |
| Ann. Return (%) | 13.13 |
| Ann. Sharpe Ratio | 1.63 |
| MAR Ratio | 1.92 |
Risk Metrics
| Top_Dual | |
|---|---|
| Ann. StdDev. (%) | 8.05 |
| SemiDeviation (%) | 0.37 |
| Max DrawDown (%) | 6.84 |
| Value-at-Risk (%) | -0.82 |
Daily Metrics
| daily metrics (%) | |
|---|---|
| Av. Return (%) | 0.05 |
| Best Day (%) | 1.61 |
| Worst Day (%) | -2.57 |
| Av. Up-Day (%) | 0.39 |
| Av. Down-Day (%) | -0.39 |
| Pct Up-Days (%) | 56.00 |
| Pct Down-Days (%) | 43.00 |
Monthly Metrics
| monthly metrics (%) | |
|---|---|
| Av. Return (%) | 1.04 |
| Best Month (%) | 5.79 |
| Worst Month (%) | -4.07 |
| Av. Up-Month (%) | 2.39 |
| Av. Down-Month (%) | -1.79 |
| Pct Up-Months (%) | 68.00 |
| Pct Down-Months (%) | 32.00 |
Drawdown Analysis Top_Dual in Days
| From | To | Depth | Length |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-02-02 | 2023-04-13 | -6.84 % | 49 |
| 2025-04-03 | 2025-09-26 | -5.54 % | 122 |
| 2023-09-15 | 2023-12-01 | -5.07 % | 55 |
| 2024-11-25 | 2025-03-31 | -4.51 % | 85 |
| 2023-04-14 | 2023-06-30 | -4.29 % | 54 |
Top_Dual vs Other Asset Classes since start | S&P 500
| Top_Dual | TLT | VNQ | UUP | EFA | DBC | GLD | DAX | SPY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annualized Return | 12.7% | 0.9% | 8.7% | 3.5% | 19.2% | 4.8% | 38.2% | 20.2% | 19.7% |
| Annualized Std Dev | 7.9% | 14.6% | 17.3% | 6.8% | 14.0% | 15.2% | 18.3% | 14.2% | 14.7% |
| Annualized Sharpe | 1.60 | 0.06 | 0.50 | 0.52 | 1.37 | 0.31 | 2.08 | 1.43 | 1.34 |
| Worst Drawdown | 6.8% | 22.4% | 21.8% | 10.1% | 14.1% | 13.8% | 13.9% | 16.0% | 18.9% |
Rolling Correlation of Top_Dual vs. DAX | S&P 500
| Top_Dual | DAX | SP500 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top_Dual | 1.000 | 0.343 | 0.633 |
| DAX | 0.343 | 1.000 | 0.530 |
| SP500 | 0.633 | 0.530 | 1.000 |
More analysis for Top_Dual
Rolling 12-Month Window for Return & Stdv & Sharpe Ratio
Risk Analysis for Top_Dual vs. DAX | S&P 500
Top_Dual Return versus Other Asset Classes
| Top_Dual | TLT | VNQ | UUP | EFA | DBC | GLD | SPY | DAX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annualized Return | 11.8% | 1.7% | 7.2% | 3.3% | 6.7% | 1.2% | 12.1% | 11.1% | 8.0% |
| Annualized Std Dev | 8.0% | 14.5% | 19.6% | 7.1% | 16.6% | 17.1% | 15.3% | 17.2% | 18.6% |
| Annualized Sharpe | 1.48 | 0.12 | 0.37 | 0.47 | 0.41 | 0.07 | 0.80 | 0.65 | 0.43 |
| Worst Drawdown | 8.6% | 48.4% | 42.4% | 14.2% | 34.2% | 59.9% | 24.5% | 33.9% | 38.8% |
Longterm Return Table for Top_Dual starting 2014
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Year | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | |||||||||||||
| 2015 | |||||||||||||
| 2016 | |||||||||||||
| 2017 | |||||||||||||
| 2018 | |||||||||||||
| 2019 | |||||||||||||
| 2020 | |||||||||||||
| 2021 | |||||||||||||
| 2022 | |||||||||||||
| 2023 | |||||||||||||
| 2024 | |||||||||||||
| 2025 | |||||||||||||
| 2026 |
My portfolio comprises:
- Top_Dual & Top_Target momentum and accumulation strategies, are focusing on harnessing and leveraging market trends for consistent and sustainable growth.
- Top_Switch, an Asset rotation strategy is dynamically reallocating capital across asset classes to optimize returns and mitigate risks.
- Top_Vola strategy, is tailored to capitalize on both sudden and sustained market fluctuations, enhancing risk - adjusted returns.
- Top_Rank, a systematic ranking strategy that continuously allocates capital to the strongest-performing assets, ensuring disciplined participation in prevailing market leadership.
- Top_Trend (=CTA) strategy, which forms the backbone of diversification with a 30 % allocation. This strategy excels in capturing trends and providing stability during market
- Additional advanced and highly specialized approaches, crafted to adapt seamlessly to complex and evolving market dynamics.
Together, these strategies create a robust and well - balanced portfolio framework. By blending simplicity with sophistication, the approach ensures adaptability, consistency, and long - term success, even in the face of unpredictable market conditions.
Uncorrelated Strategies
The cornerstone of success lies in the deliberate and precise integration of diverse, genuinely uncorrelated strategies, executed with unwavering discipline and emotional composure. My approach is devoid of the influence of greed or fear, guided instead by the principles of expertise and professionalism. Each decision is the product of meticulous analysis and a technically sound methodology, consciously avoiding impulsive or reactionary behavior. Furthermore, all decisions are grounded 100% in mathematical and statistical principles, ensuring objectivity and consistency. By consciously excluding any human influence, the process eliminates the risk of emotional bias or subjective judgment. This steadfast adherence to strategy allows me to navigate the complexities of the markets with confidence and consistency, maintaining an unyielding commitment to excellence.
Trading
The elegance of these strategies lies in their straightforward yet effective design. Each morning, data is carefully downloaded, and within 15 minutes, calculations ensure that theoretical models align seamlessly with practical execution. By evening, new orders are automatically dispatched to the exchange, just before the market closes. This approach is not a feat of magic, but rather a testament to disciplined craftsmanship. It guarantees that execution timing remains uninfluenced — an essential factor in maintaining the robustness and reliability of the strategy.
Data Used
Back-testing is often dismissed as mere theory or abstract mathematics. However, I recognize that the performance up to December 2022 reflects a combination of real - time trading outcomes and newly implemented systems. While historical achievements provide valuable insights, I find little satisfaction in endlessly revisiting past successes. My focus is clear and uncompromising—cutting through bureaucracy to channel my energy toward the present and future, where true progress is made.
Dedication
In collaboration with my dear friend and developer, Helmuth Vollmeier, in a fit of genius or maybe just sheer madness, we decided to hit the reset button on everything in 2022. It was like a software update for our lives — new and improved. Unfortunately, the joy of our new start was short-lived as Helmuth passed away suddenly in February 2023, leaving me deeply saddened. Despite facing phases of doubt and questioning the meaning of it all, I returned to my desk, immersing myself in learning once again, now without my dear friend Helmuth by my side! I dedicate this work to Helmuth Vollmeier, one of my best friends, my intellectual partner, my daily communicator, and companion!